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Read online @ B A K K E N O I L B I Z . C O M / d i g i t a l - j o u r n a l 9 REGISTRATION OPENS DECEMBER 1, 2016 For more information visit Libya is now a failed state producing only a frac- tion of its 2004 output, and Saudi Arabia is threatened by Iran. Iraq was torn apart by war and is still a nation rebuilding itself. Despite chaos even more widespread and dev- astating than National Geographic suggested in 2004, global oil output has increased, and will continue to increase. A growing number of discoveries have led to more drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, West Africa, and Russia, thereby en- abling oil companies to meet worldwide demand. The EIA projects 2017 oil production of about 97 million barrels a day. However, the article then moved away from fact- based commentary and adopted a dire emo- tional tone. "But in the end, the quest for more cheap oil will prove a losing game: Not just be- cause oil consumption imposes severe costs on the environment, health, and taxpayers, but also because the world's oil addiction is hastening a day of reckoning." ROBERT K. KAUFMANN PREDICTS "In our lifetime," says economist Robert K. Kaufmann of Boston University, "we will have to deal with a peak in the supply of cheap oil." Oil companies and consumers have heard this claim for decades, ever since M. King Hub- bert first asserted in 1956 that oil production would reach a "peak" in the early 1970s, then begin a permanent decline. "Peak Oil", as it be- came known. However, like all Doom-and-Gloom prognosticators, he pushed back his predicted arrival-date for Doomsday whenever the crisis failed to show signs of sticking to his schedule. Hubbert's failure to pick the moment when the world would face "Peak Oil" didn't stop National Geographic from throwing out its own net covering a substantial stretch of time. "The flood of crude from fields around the world will ultimately top out, then dwindle. It could be five years from now or 30. No one knows for sure, and geologists and economists are embroiled in debate about just when the "oil peak" will be upon us. But few doubt that it is coming." We're still waiting. Inasmuch as National Geographic made its prediction in 2004, we're well past the five-year mark, and almost half way to the 30-year mark. Seems as though they missed by a mile. According to the article, we will experience a lot of pain. "The peak will be a watershed moment, marking the change from an increasing supply of cheap oil to a dwindling supply of expensive oil. Some experts foresee dire consequences: shortages, price spikes, economic disruption, and a desperate push to wrest oil from "unconventional" sources such as tar sands, oil shale, or coal." Who's feeling the pain? Not consumers. Instead, it's the producers. Venezuela and Libya, to name two, are suffering. They need more sales and higher prices. Saudi Arabia needs higher prices. At current levels, the king- dom is struggling. Its oil revenue can't cover its budget so it is now borrowing money in the international bond market. Meanwhile, the writer touched on a key development when he mentioned extracting oil from shale. However, like virtually every- one predicting the end of oil as we know it, he was unable to imagine a new oil-extraction technology that would lead to a vast production increase at relatively low cost. ‚ě§ continued pg 10

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